Donald Trump: international peacemaker?
As a ceasefire looks close in Gaza, two sessions at the Battle of Ideas festival will offer the chance to look at Trump’s successes and failings – and who really decides what happens next.
Is the end in sight for the Gaza war? As I write, the Israeli cabinet is about to consider a deal negotiated in Egypt to implement a ceasefire, the release of hostages (in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners) and an increase of food aid into Gaza. This is certainly the most hopeful sign yet that the conflict could end.
That said, this is simply a preliminary phase. All the big issues will remain, including who will run Gaza in the future, whether Hamas will lay down its weapons, and more. Hamas has lost this war and faces a complete rout if Israel continues to attack. But reports suggest that this deal, as far as it goes, is also the result of pressure being applied on Hamas, not just by America but by Turkey, Egypt and Qatar, too – all countries that are looking to gain something from America in return.
Nonetheless, it is clear that Donald Trump is determined to strike a peace deal. For his many critics, it may be galling that he could now present himself as the peacemaker – and a potential Nobel Peace Prize winner – but he seems to have used his persistence and leverage to good effect.
All this makes two sessions at the Battle of Ideas festival, on 18 & 19 October in Westminster, particularly relevant. The first asks Can Trump bring peace to the world? Maybe the progress in the Middle East suggests he could. But the failure of his overtures to Vladimir Putin means that the war in Ukraine continues, as fiercely as ever, and with shrinking global attention. What should we make of Trump’s efforts?
The second session is Who will determine the future of the Middle East? As the Gaza deal shows, the answer is complex. We would like to believe in peace, self-determination and democracy. But given the interests of the various powers with a stake in shaping the future, is there any chance that ordinary citizens will get a say in what happens?
Full details of both sessions appear below. Tickets for the festival are selling fast but are still available on the festival tickets page – with big discounts and offers for students, school pupils and concessions.
CAN TRUMP BRING PEACE TO THE WORLD?
Saturday 18 October, 12:15pm - 1:30pm
‘I want to end it. You know, we’re not losing American lives… we’re losing Russian and Ukrainian mostly soldiers. I want to try and get to heaven if possible. I’m hearing I’m not doing well. I am really at the bottom of the totem pole. But if I can get to heaven, this will be one of the reasons.’
Donald Trump phoned in to a Fox News show to state his motivation for focusing so much on bringing peace to Europe after over three years of the biggest war the continent had seen since the Second World War. Trump might be genuine about his desire to see peace. But the question is whether Trump’s ‘art of the deal’ is cut out for the realities of geopolitics.
It is not just Ukraine where Trump has sought peace. Trump claims to have brought peace to six or seven conflicts in his two terms in office, including Israel-Iran, Pakistan-India and Armenia-Azerbaijan. His administration has also pursued an end to the conflict in Gaza. But in all cases, critics have attacked both the style and the substance of Trump’s peace efforts.
Most obvious have been his failures to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Despite promising to bring it to an end in 24 hours, and despite August’s high-profile meeting between Trump and Vladimir Putin, and then Trump’s hosting of European leaders including Volodymyr Zelensky, the war seems little closer to an end than when he took office. Supporters of Ukraine have been outraged by his suggestions that Ukraine would have to engage in a ‘land for peace’ swap, and point to Trump’s see-sawing on military support to the beleaguered country and entertaining of ‘war criminal’ Putin.
But many of his supporters are disappointed for the opposite reason – he has refused to cut off the ‘ungrateful’ Zelensky. It seems that Trump’s belief that merely encouraging Putin and Zelensky to come to the table has floundered on the reality of a conflict with huge ramifications and deep roots – including the role of previous American administrations.
Elsewhere, results are more mixed. Trump seems to have successfully dealt with Israel’s conflict with Iran with a combination of an unprecedented use of American airpower against Iran and frantic social-media posts restraining Netanyahu. Trump’s role in India and Pakistan is unclear, but the exchanges did not escalate into war. Yet peace in Gaza remains elusive – the Trump administration has given almost unrestrained backing in practice to Israel whilst hinting at displeasure with the Israeli government, and yet seems to have little leverage over Hamas and its backers.
It is still too early to tell if Trump will succeed in ending Russia’s war or bring the Israeli hostages home. But are Trump’s efforts the result of serious geopolitical acumen or just a desperate desire for a Nobel Prize? Is Trump deluded in thinking that he personally can end major conflicts – and has the time when America could dictate world affairs come to an end? But if Trump can’t bring peace, can anyone? Or is it a mistake to think of these wars as a matter of personalities, when much larger geopolitical forces are at play?
SPEAKERS
Mary Dejevsky
former foreign correspondent in Moscow, Paris and Washington; special correspondent in China; writer and broadcaster
Blair Milo
senior fellow, Sagamore Institute
Bruno Waterfield
Brussels correspondent, The Times
Peter Whittle
founder and director, New Culture Forum; host, NCF YouTube channel
CHAIR
Tony Gilland
chief of staff, MCC Brussels; associate fellow, Academy of Ideas
WHO WILL DETERMINE THE FUTURE
OF THE MIDDLE EAST?
Sunday 19 October, 1:45pm-3:15pm
The Middle East is again at the epicentre of the news – though it never really left. War rages in Gaza, unrest flares up in Lebanon, regime change has left Syria convulsing, and the long confrontation between Iran and Israel – which ignited this year – looms over it all.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia signs record-breaking arms deals, Yemen’s conflict smoulders away, and the Gulf States vie to position themselves as the technotopias of the future. Hovering above it all are the constant policy recalibrations of the US, China, Russia and the European powers, each manoeuvring for advantage.
The region is always described as home to ‘ancient rivalries’, but what is really shaping the region today, and who will determine its future?
Some point to Israel’s grand attempt to cripple its enemies, from Hamas to Hezbollah and Iran, as the decisive factor. Others suggest that the conflict has left Israel isolated on the international stage. Or perhaps it will be the Gulf States who are decisive, their financial power transforming into diplomatic power, especially if the signatories to the Abraham Accords widen? Perhaps the rivalry between Saudia Arabia and Qatar will be the decisive factor in the region.
Other analysts insist on the importance of Turkey, attempting to cement its role as a regional hegemon. Some point to deeper trends – such as religious competition or a shift away from oil – that will determine the fate of the region. Or perhaps Trump – with his vision of endless trade and a ‘Gaza Riveria’ – will be the determining factor?
The Middle East has long been discussed only in relation to the ill-judged attempts of foreign powers to meddle in, change or dominate the region. Is it time to ask: who within the region will determine its fate?
SPEAKERS
Chris Bayliss
writer and consultant
Dr Tim Black
books and essays editor, spiked
Nick Busvine OBE
consultant; founding partner, Herminius Holdings Ltd; advisory board member, Briefings for Britain; former diplomat, Foreign and Commonwealth Office
Anne-Elisabeth Moutet
columnist and commentator for Telegraph, UnHerd, GB News, BFMTV (Paris)
Dr Ralph Schoellhammer
commentator and podcaster; professor of International Relations; head of Center for Applied History and IR Theory, MCC Budapest
CHAIR
Jacob Reynolds
head of policy, MCC Brussels; associate fellow, Academy of Ideas